Dicey December?

[servocrow]

Anywho, back to weather....I would like to see some of the cold weather to get in here and maybe it will help get people in the Christmas mood.

Notice we've had NO Fall Severe Weather Season.....Hope that is an indicator of snow and cold on the way.

Otherwise....I'll be doing this      a lot more.

[Thundersnow]

Today's EURO apparently hinting toward cold in the long range.

[Cameron K.]

My father who lives in Michigan called and said several cars were off the free way up there and into the ditches earlier due to black ice.

[Thundersnow]

LOL... just to toss you another bone...

Some folks who really follow this stuff, looking at things like teleconnections, NAO, PDO, etc... are really starting to hype the possibility of a very cold December.

Maybe more on that later.

[Woodvegas]

LOL... just to toss you another bone...

Some folks who really follow this stuff, looking at things like teleconnections, NAO, PDO, etc... are really starting to hype the possibility of a very cold December.

Maybe more on that later.

The discussion about the the latest Euro ensembles over at Easternuswx is verrrrry interesting. If there is verification we would be looking at nasty cold in the east with storms suppressed to the south. Maybe we'll get lucky for once.

[Thundersnow]

Several forecasters are getting on board with it, it seems.

Just to give you an idea of what's being said out there... I read one remark that implied that it could be the coldest month so far this decade... and, comparisons are being drawn to December 1989... which, if you recall, brought temperatures as cold as -10 to Nashville (not much snow though... mainly some ice and brutally cold tempertures). 

If we can get a cold regime in place... surely we're due some decent wintry threats. 

It's not time to go to the bank on all that just yet.  But, interesting nonetheless.

Could be a D-icey  December?   

[Cameron K.]

Several forecasters are getting on board with it, it seems.

Just to give you an idea of what's being said out there... I read one remark that implied that it could be the coldest month so far this decade... and, comparisons are being drawn to December 1989... which, if you recall, brought temperatures as cold as -10 to Nashville (not much snow though... mainly some ice and brutally cold tempertures). 

If we can get a cold regime in place... surely we're due some decent wintry threats. 

It's not time to go to the bank on all that just yet.  But, interesting nonetheless.

Could be a D-icey  December?   

It would be great to see past model runs that showed bellow zero temps for our area. Or would that be pre-GFS. Just so we have sort of a comparison.   

[Curt]

I remember '89 well...lakes froze over area wide so thick they could be skated upon. BUT little snow or ice(maybe 2 dustings and a flase alarm) followed by blowtorch Jan and the rest of the winter for that matter with zero in the way of snow. Honestly, if we dont see some wintry precip, not sure how excited I can be about temps in the single digits or lower.

[Nashville_wx]

Dicey I like it. Looking into the latest telleconnections we see some interested things taking place. Given the NAO guidance vs verification which has been very poor overall ensemble data from the GFS Euro and Ukie seem to point to blocking ( positioned ) in the correct place ( West and East Bias NAO's). Also SSTS in the GOA over the last couple weeks have risen. Remember that
a ridge is easier to form over warmer waters. Ensemble mean into December looks to hold @ +1 . So many things are happening that seem to be setting up for a cold fist half of December and possible into the latter part. Its really hard to pin point anything at this point as thundersnow has stated. What we look for is model trend and overall climatology. We know that we are going to have blocking in place over n/w greenland. We know the GOA ssts for now will support a ridge that could hold as we enter the month of December. We know that the 500mb mean pattern has been hinting at possible phasing. How this plays out, the tilt and overall track of the surface low does it happen will place major havok with our heads as models are having major problems with where the energy will come from. Where know that some major cold is moving over on our side of the world. -30C 850mb temps move into our area from possible cross polar flow. I myself am trying to place a storm out in the extended range but will stick with my first accumulating snowfall by Dec 15th. It has been some years since we have had the mechanics work out for a extended lock of cold weather. Keep your hopes up as we will been starting more thread than ever keeping up with future threats. For now, enjoy some cooler weather till we can get the Southern Jet active

[Thundersnow]

12Z GFS at 252 hours (12/1):

[StormNine]

That if were to happen that would be a rare storm for the Nov 30th-Dec2nd time frame.   With good snow as far south as Central Alabama.   If only it was within 72 hours instead of 200 plus.

[Snowman]

Thats what I like to see. Pattern sure does look like we could get some of those storms. Very cold arctic air flowing in here around beginning of December and some supressed storms. I am in love. Better situation for me than the clippers.

[Woodvegas]

Euro weeklies released today (11/20) reportedly show below normal temps for the next month including 2 weeks of brutal cold.

Quote from the infamous DT....
"Severe cold threat 1st week of DEC favors DEEP SOUTH SNOWS
especially if we get SW cutoff Low over Calif/Baja."

 

[Clay]

Can you get me the link to that WoodVegas?

[Woodvegas]

Can you get me the link to that WoodVegas?

For DT:
http://www.stormvista.com  (It's a thread title in the weather discussion forum. You have to register to see it I believe)
http://www.wxrisk.com  (read the ticker message)

Regarding the Euro Weeklies:
It's a thread topic at Easternuswx.com.
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=178967