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Author Topic: Dicey December?  (Read 13155 times)

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Offline Thundersnow

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Dicey December?
« on: November 18, 2008, 11:36:55 AM »
Model watching season has begun!   ::applause::  ::)

There has been some consistency for several runs about a possible storm system some time around the weekend following Thanksgiving.  Some weather prognosticators are looking for potential cold shots or other systems after that.  It's all muddied and uncertain at this point.  But, just to give us something to look forward to.

12Z GFS

Here's what appears to be a pretty decent rain system the model has been advertising for several runs now.  It may also have some cold air behind it (how cold... remains to be seen).

Hour 264-276 (November 29):

[maps]

Then on hour 324-336 (12/2... way out in voodoo land), we have this scenario:

[maps]

That's a low progged to develop in the Gulf and move off the Southeast coast, with some cool air in place around here.  Those are the kinds of scenarios to look for... but, again, this is too far out to take literally at this point.  It's just a potential "pattern" to keep an eye on.  ;)
« Last Edit: November 19, 2008, 09:21:48 PM by Thundersnow »
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Offline Nashville_wx

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2008, 01:36:10 PM »
A bit too early to say anything other than relax for a couple day because models over the next 3-5 days are going to bring some interesting things to picture.
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2008, 08:29:50 PM »
Quote from: Nashville_wx on November 18, 2008, 01:36:10 PM
A bit too early to say anything other than relax for a couple day because models over the next 3-5 days are going to bring some interesting things to picture.

I think you're probably right.  We'll just have to casually keep an eye on the models over the coming days until we can find something to have confidence in.
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2008, 11:09:42 AM »
12Z GFS today is seeing a big storm on December 1:



That would be 2" rain amounts if it verified.

Behind that, sharply colder:

« Last Edit: November 19, 2008, 11:16:09 AM by Thundersnow »
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Offline joemomma

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2008, 12:59:16 PM »
So rain changing over to snow?  Hmmm....how much snow "could" that entail?  I can't read those maps...
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2008, 01:06:36 PM »
Quote from: joemomma on November 19, 2008, 12:59:16 PM
So rain changing over to snow?  Hmmm....how much snow "could" that entail?  I can't read those maps...

There isn't much snow depicted for us on that map... flurries on the back side at most.  Most of the moisture (as is normally the case) is on the warm side of the system.  But, the big story may be the cold air behind it... which could set the stage for other possibilites beyond that timeframe, which the model is trying to show a few days after that.  But, it's too early to look at specifics that far out.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2008, 01:11:09 PM by Thundersnow »
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Offline joemomma

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2008, 01:50:46 PM »
Ahh.  I forgot how much these possible scenarios can give and take away!
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Offline Cameron K.

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2008, 02:04:08 PM »
288hrs. Man what are doing over there? That's like the forbidden zone.  ::wow::
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Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2008, 02:06:50 PM »
Quote from: Cameron K. on November 19, 2008, 02:04:08 PM
288hrs. Man what are doing over there? That's like the forbidden zone.  ::wow::

 ;D

Might as well get it out of our system early in the season...
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Offline Snowman

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2008, 02:42:27 PM »
Just a thought from Hackuweather.  ;)

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Brandon

servocrow

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2008, 02:45:35 PM »
ACK!!! WE'RE GONNA DIE!!! WE'RE GONNA DIE!!

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Offline Snowman

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2008, 02:48:06 PM »
Is that your natural hair color Servo?  ;D
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Brandon

Offline Thundersnow

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2008, 02:48:57 PM »
 ::panic::

Hah!  That's great. 
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servocrow

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2008, 02:49:42 PM »
Quote from: Snowman on November 19, 2008, 02:48:06 PM
Is that your natural hair color Servo?  ;D

Only my hairdresser knows for sure.  Oh...and my hubby and kids as my head tends to explode frequently. ::guitar::
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servocrow

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Re: Post-Thanksgiving/Early December Chances?
« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2008, 02:50:47 PM »
Quote from: Thundersnow on November 19, 2008, 02:48:57 PM
::panic::

Hah!  That's great. 

I think Judge Dredd posted that one at TW ..... I promptly pilfered it.
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