November 15-16 Rain to Flurries

[Thundersnow]

From the Nashville AFD this morning:

MOISTURE MOVES IN FOR GOOD TONIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT AND UPPER
SYSTEM WORK THEIR WAY EWD. THUS 70-80 POPS PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS
FOR TNGT/WED/WED NGT. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH A BIT ON THU/FRI AS
MORE WLY FLOW TAKES OVER ALOFT. WITH THE WLY FLOW ALOFT A COLD FRONT
RACES THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI BRINGING SGFNTLY COLDER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS DROP FROM +9C ON FRI AM TO -6C ON SAT AM.
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SAT THE
COLD AIR COLUMN MAY KICK OFF A MIX OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS SAT NGT IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA.

[Snowman]

I would not be suprised to see a dusting up on the cumberland. Weird things always happen up there.

[StormNine]

didn't parts of the plateau and even parts of SE mid TN get a dusting back in October.

interesting things happen up there.

afd's talking about flurries gets me all cozy and prepared for winter time.

[Snowman]

Yes they did.

[Woodvegas]

11/11 12Z GFS and Euro both look relatively cool this weekend with maybe some flurries Saturday although surface temps are mostly above freezing. The Euro is a little wetter on Saturday. Both models look cold after next Monday-Tuesday.

[Snowman]

Nashville, TN...

.LONG TERM...
FRI EVE A FRONT ARRIVES AND MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BOTH FRI AND
FRI NITE. LITE POST-FRONTAL RAIN SAT NCNTRL AND NE...AND SOME
POSSIBLE SW- NE SAT NITE. SAT INTO TUE LOOK TO BE QUITE
COOL...WITH ANOTHER DRY WEAK FRONT BY TUE.

Louisville, KY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

OVERALL LONG RANGE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO HAVE PRETTY GOOD
CONTINUITY HERE.  SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER BLUSTERY AND RAW
WITH TEMPERATURE STRUGGLING TO GET TO 40 ACROSS THE NORTH.  AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY GET INTO THE LOWER 40S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS A BIT LOWER HERE GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES.  FOR NOW HAVE
TRENDED CLOSE TO THE RAW 12Z GFS/EURO TEMPS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND LEAD TO
SCATTERED MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING MORE SNOW SHOWERS THAN RAIN SHOWERS WOULD
OBVIOUSLY BE ACROSS THE NORTHER WHERE THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE
SUPPORTIVE.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN
TOWARD THE SURFACE AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY COVER THE
REGION AS MID-LEVEL VORT SLICES THROUGH.  LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL LIKELY
DROP TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.  COMBINATION OF WET ROADS FROM
PRECIP AND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING COULD CAUSE SOME SLICK SPOTS TO
DEVELOP ON AREA ROADWAYS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO
PRODUCT.

Paducah, KY...

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY RAW/CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY AS PLENTY OF
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STREAMS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROF. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS
FOR SIDING TOO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY OUT THIS FAR IN TIME...AND WILL
UNDERCUT MOS MAX TEMPS SAT SIGNIFICANTLY. COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE
SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS LAST SUNDAY...WHEN TEMPS HELD IN THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 MANY LOCATION. IN ADDITION...COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR SAT OVER MUCH OF THE QUAD
STATE AREA. EVEN THE LOWEST BOUNDARY LAYER THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WET SNOW
FLAKES MIXING IN WITH SCT SHOWERS SAT INTO SAT EVENING.
HOWEVER...SURFACE  TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

Morristown, TN...

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD...WITH GFS TRYING TO CUT OFF
UPPER LOW NEAR THE GULF...AND KEEPS THINGS MUCH WETTER OVER OUR
AREA.  GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER...WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES.  WILL GO CLOSER TO AN ECMWF/NAM/SREF SOLUTION
EARLY ON.  CAT POPS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN CHANCE EARLY THU
NIGHT.  ASSUMING GFS IS INCORRECT...SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
FRIDAY...BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH IN DURING THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHIC FORCING THAN IT DID THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL NOT IDEAL.  WILL GO WITH LOW POPS ALL ZONES
SAT...THEN MAINLY NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.  WITH
COLDER AIR PUSHING IN...SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
HIGHER TERRAIN.  DRY MON AND TUE FOR NOW.  WILL GENERALLY NOT STRAY
TOO FAR FROM GFS MOS TEMPS...WITH MOST NOTEWORTHY CHANGE A BUMP UP
OF SEVERAL DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON THU MAINLY SOUTH AND CENTRAL.

[Thundersnow]

And, the "s-word" makes it to the NWS forecast for Nashville...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
COOLER. HIGHS NEAR 50.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.

[Snowman]

Congrats Thunder. I am so not gonna like this living so far south but hey, I still get excited for yall. 

[Clay]

Congrats Thunder. I am so not gonna like this living so far south but hey, I still get excited for yall. 

Imagine how Ron feels. He won't probably won't see snow at all this winter.

[Snowman]

I know, If he sees snow and we dont. 

[Nashville_wx]

I have a feeling there is going to be a road trip to the TN/NC border this winter. Good winter storms there can drop 1'+.

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

I have a feeling there is going to be a road trip to the TN/NC border this winter. Good winter storms there can drop 1'+.

My wife and her immediate family (other than me and one of my daughters) is going to Pigeon Forge this weekend.  Will have them give us a FULL report!

[Nashville_wx]

May have to travel higher up in elevations or a bit farther into the mountain to see anything moderate fall.

[joemomma]

Off topic, but did Ron move or something?

[Thundersnow]

Off topic, but did Ron move or something?

Yep.  Ron lives in Panama City, FL now.