November 15-16 Rain to Flurries

[Snowman]

I thought with the other thread originally for the thoughts of what the upcoming winter might be like in regards to fall weather, we should start a different thread for the threat of a winter blast coming down from Canada this coming weekend.

Here is the latest thinkings from some of the National Weather Service Offices...

Louisville, Ky

DECENT COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY.  SEVERAL VORTS ALOFT WILL ROTATE AROUND LARGE H5 LOW
AND BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.  SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE COLD/BLUSTERY WITH COLD RAIN SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH
THE REGION...THOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN AT TIMES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE OP GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN ON TO THIS FOR
THE LAST 5-6 RUNS...AND THE ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWING CLAWING ON TO THE
SOLUTION.  THE 00Z EURO IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS
MOST OF THE ACTION NE OF HERE.  GIVEN THE TRENDS AND THE GROWING
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT HAVE LEANED A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW.  HIGHS
SATURDAY ARE A TOUGH CALL.  THE RAW NUMBERS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.  HOWEVER THE 12Z OP GFS IS ONE OF THE COLDEST MODEL
MEMBERS AND THUS HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN PREVIOUS
FCST...BUT NEARER THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.  I WOULD IMAGINE WE MAY HAVE TO LOWER
TEMPS A BIT MORE IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.  SAT NIGHT
LOWS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH READINGS DROPPING NEAR FREEZING.

SECONDARY VORT LOBE LOOKS TO SWING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH THE BEST LIFT/FORCING ARRIVING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING.  OPERATIONAL MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS AND EURO HAVE
GOOD SUPPORT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE REGION.  THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO
THE THERMAL STRUCTURE DURING THE TIME FRAME AS THE ENSEMBLES ARE NOT
AS COLD AS THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT.  RATHER THAN JUMPING THE GUN...WILL
TREND THE FCST COLDER AND ADD IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR SUN.

MOST GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY IS SIMPLY WAY TOO WARM AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FCST CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND 40 IN
THE NORTH WITH LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH.  THE RAW NUMBERS FROM THE GFS
AND EURO ARE COLDER AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR TRENDS
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Memphis, TN

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING 850 TEMPS OF -8 TO -10. THIS WILL MAKE
TODAY SEEM WARM IF THIS HOLDS TRUE. THE GFS IS EVEN PUTTING OUT SOME
FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. NOW THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN BUT DO EXPECT THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

Nashville, TN

DISSIPATING FRONT MOVES ACROSS WED NITE...AND A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS FRI. MUCH COLDER FRI NITE INTO SUN W/ SOME
WRAP-AROUND R- POSSIBLE NE SECTIONS.

Huntsville, TN

AS THE SECONDARY IMPULSE OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRI...A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE ERN CONUS AS
RAPID HEIGHT RISES OCCUR IN THE WRN CONUS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
BEGIN IN EARNEST ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...BUT TIMING SPECIFICS STILL
REMAIN A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WHAT IS BECOMING MORE CERTAIN HOWEVER IS
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND. LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH...AND DARE I MENTION THE "S" WORD FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS FOR SAT NIGHT? OK...NOT YET...BUT IT MAY BE COMING IN FUTURE
DISCUSSIONS/FCSTS IF CURRENT LOW-LVL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES HOLD.
&&

[Snowman]

Here is a look at the 15th, from a quick glance at gfs so far tonight. System seems to continue to want to pull down cold air along with sweeping around some moisture on the back side of this system. 

[Thundersnow]

Could we be flirting with a flizzard?? 

 

[Snowman]

Uhhh, Im trying not to get ahead of myself. 

[Clay]

Flizzard is probably my favorite weather word. 

[Cameron K.]

Flizzard is probably my favorite weather word. 

I looked it up and the word was born during the 1997 flood in North Dakota and Minnesota. 

[Thundersnow]

In the South, we know it as an onslaught of flurries. 

[lyngo]

FLURRY DUSTING!!!!

[Snowman]

I like "Flurry Dusting" as well lyngo. 

[Snowman]

Just noticed HackuWeather is got a bit of rain and snow here in southern tn for the 22. 

[Thundersnow]

I had just noticed the same for Nashville on that date.  Looks like a chilly period anyway.

[Snowman]

Yes, the models continue to end this month on a rather chilly note.

[lyngo]

I'd like to see the upcoming weather pattern hold through December, get a week or so January thaw, then pick back up to close out the winter.       

[Cameron K.]

Just noticed HackuWeather is got a bit of rain and snow here in southern tn for the 22. 

GFS has three consecutive runs that show a cold air flooding the southeastern US Thursday the 20th or Wednesday night. Though all three of them aren't identical; it does show that there is another strong cold front set plow through sometime late next week.

[snowdog]

Looks like we will be getting a good dump of cold air this weekend.  Welcome back and feel free to stay for the entire winter.