First Snow for Smokies Possible...Winter Weather Advisory Issued

[Snowman]

Morristown afternoon forecast discussion. 

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS A CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THE GFS
AND THE NAM DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
NAM BEING THE FASTER MODEL. THE SLOWER GFS IS PREFERED AS THE MODELS
GENERALLY TREND SLOWER WITH THESE TYPES OF CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS...AND
THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE GFS. A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850 MB JET MAY ALSO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WHICH DELAYS THE ONSET OF
PRECIP IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. STRONG WARM ADVECTION BELOW UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A GOOD
RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
HIGH CHANCES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAINTIES PREVENT
LIKELY POPS AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH
AXIS PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...ENDING THE PRECIP IN MOST
AREAS...THOUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE 500 MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES COULD SEE THE FIRST SNOW OF THE
YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

[Reneezelle]

Okay so if Im going to Gatlinburg on Nov 8 what should I expect??? Any thoughts?

[Snowman]

Thats a little far out but hey, its fall, Chilly weather can be expected up in the mtns.

[servocrow]

..... Any thoughts?

Just these....

1)  Think of how badly your pal Servo would like to be all cozied up in a cabin in the Smokies...then     briefly for me...

2)  Think about  and how GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD it smells, especially on vacation....

3)  Think about    and    and     and have a good time.

[Thundersnow]

Don't forget to eat at the Pancake Pantry in Gatlinburg for us, Renee.

Have some



with your

   

[servocrow]

Don't forget to eat at the Pancake Pantry in Gatlinburg for us, Renee.

Have some

[Snowman]

The pancake pantry is Amazing. TS is right, do not pass that opportunity up. Even if you have to wait in line. Well worth it. 

[Snowman]

THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A 40 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850
MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS AND IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE TOO
MARGINAL TO MENTION ANY SNOW AT THIS TIME.

THE CLOSED LOW OPENS INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY...MERGING
WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH A STRONG POLAR JET DIVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TREND...THEY
DIFFER GREATLY IN THE FINER DETAILS. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER TROUGH
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...BRINGING COLDER AIR FARTHER SOUTH
AND MORE MOISTURE. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...THICKNESS VALUES
INDICATE SNOW IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER IT
HAS ALSO SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...SO THE GFS IS PREFERED
AT THIS TIME. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW AS DEEP OF A TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...AND KEEPS MOISTURE WELL TO THE NORTH. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHOWS A TROUGH THAT IS EVEN LESS DEEP THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
THUS WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY.

[Reneezelle]

Thanks guys!!! I will eat at the pancake pantry and take pictures with my cell phone and post them later. Hahaha
 I wish it were NOW that I was going though! I hope I don't miss all of the foliage... Im not sure if its even pretty this year though.

[Snowman]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

NCZ033-048>052-280300-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0006.081028T0300Z-081028T1800Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE
256 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BORDERING TENNESSEE...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN SNOW
SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

COUNTIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET COULD SEE 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON. LESS SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT...SLICK SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN MANY AREAS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

MCAVOY

[StormNine]

  NWS Morristown issued an advisory saying 1 to 2 in the smokies.

[servocrow]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
803 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

NCZ033-048>052-281000-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WW.Y.0006.081028T0003Z-081028T1800Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE
803 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

COUNTIES ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER WILL SEE THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FEET COULD
SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF
IN THE AFTERNOON. LESS SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN LOWER ELEVATION
VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...SLICK SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES IN MANY AREAS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$
07






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
610 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY ALONG WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND EAST TENNESSEE. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-VAZ002-006-280400-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0005.081028T0100Z-081028T1600Z/
JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
WISE-RUSSELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...
ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...WISE...NORTON...
LEBANON
610 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
12 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 12 PM EDT TUESDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES IS POSSIBLE BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND
THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS GENERALLY ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION

 

[Chelsea in Tn]

My sons and Husband were in the Smokey's last weekend backpacking - it rained.  Guess they should be happy they are not there now...

[Clay]

My sons and Husband were in the Smokey's last weekend backpacking - it rained.  Guess they should be happy they are not there now...

Two years ago this month I walked to the top of Clingman's Dome. At that time in the Afternoon it was 35º at the top with at least 30 mph winds. It was 70º in Memphis just to contrast the 2. 

[Chelsea in Tn]

Two years ago this month I walked to the top of Clingman's Dome. At that time in the Afternoon it was 35º at the top with at least 30 mph winds. It was 70º in Memphis just to contrast the 2. 

I will have to ask them but Clingman's Dome Sounds familiar - maybe they went there last year??