* User

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Advertisement

* Current Watches/Warnings/Advisories for TN - Click the (+) Icon to the Right to see them ------>


Author Topic: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)  (Read 35200 times)

Volduff64, bretvol, WXHD, blackdog, DocB and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,051
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 907
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #645 on: November 14, 2018, 05:12:11 PM »
Interesting fact shared by local meteorologist Todd Howell--today's high of 42 in Knoxville is the coldest high temperature in November in 3 years.  Basically, it takes us back to before the Super Nino of '16 torched the atmosphere.  That's a good sign for the upcoming winter!
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline schneitzeit

  • Supercell
  • *****
  • Posts: 732
  • Location: Knoxville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 558
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #646 on: November 14, 2018, 06:32:05 PM »
Interesting fact shared by local meteorologist Todd Howell--today's high of 42 in Knoxville is the coldest high temperature in November in 3 years.  Basically, it takes us back to before the Super Nino of '16 torched the atmosphere.  That's a good sign for the upcoming winter!

Unfortunately, 2018 is on track to finish as the Earth's 4th hottest year on record.

I'm thankful we caught a break from excessive heat this year. Europe had a record-setting hot summer.

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,051
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 907
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #647 on: November 14, 2018, 08:26:22 PM »
Unfortunately, 2018 is on track to finish as the Earth's 4th hottest year on record.

I'm thankful we caught a break from excessive heat this year. Europe had a record-setting hot summer.


We are definitely in warm times.  Even in our colder winters a few years back, the eastern U.S. was one of the few cold places in the Northern Hemisphere.  Most other continents during those winters were warm compared to normal.  One has to wonder when the warmth will end.  In the meantime, here's hoping our part of the globe is one of the few cold places again this winter.   ::fingerscrossed::
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline StormNine

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,669
  • Location: Hopkinsville KY/ Bowling Green KY
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 111
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #648 on: November 15, 2018, 08:35:12 PM »
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

The AO looks to be going in the tank to close out this month.  The NAO may even follow suit.  After a brief warmup after Thanksgiving, we may start Meteorological Winter on the cold side.   

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,051
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 907
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #649 on: November 16, 2018, 07:57:55 AM »
Mother nature gives us a break from the soggy weather with some (welcome) sunny days ahead, but temperatures will drop from slightly below normal Saturday to even cooler weather in the lower to mid 50's next week.  Normal for Knoxville is near 60 this time of year.

Toward the end of the month, some major blocking starts to build in the high latitudes tanking the AO as StormNine noted.  Winter may send us another shot of fun stuff toward the end of the month into early December.  One has to feel pumped looking at the pattern trying to lock in. 
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline BRUCE

  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 6,275
  • Location: Spring creek
  • home of three ef4 tornadoes since 1999
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1178
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #650 on: November 16, 2018, 08:15:39 AM »
Mother nature gives us a break from the soggy weather with some (welcome) sunny days ahead, but temperatures will drop from slightly below normal Saturday to even cooler weather in the lower to mid 50's next week.  Normal for Knoxville is near 60 this time of year.

Toward the end of the month, some major blocking starts to build in the high latitudes tanking the AO as StormNine noted.  Winter may send us another shot of fun stuff toward the end of the month into early December.  One has to feel pumped looking at the pattern trying to lock in.
yeah... agree... top analog I been seeing... along with 09 10... the 76 77 keeps popping up around lot... boy if its anywhere near 76 77... fun times ahead for sure... and many late nigh model hugging...
Come on severe wx season...

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,696
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #651 on: November 16, 2018, 08:23:06 AM »
Thanksgiving week looks great. I like seasonably cool but clear weather for Thanksgiving, for travelers and outdoor activities to try to offset a portion of the calories consumed.  ::yum:: ::whistling::

Then, hopefully, we can circle back around to wintry chances in December to get things festive toward Christmas.

Offline Drifter49

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,200
  • Location: Paris Tn.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #652 on: November 16, 2018, 08:25:55 AM »
yeah... agree... top analog I been seeing... along with 09 10... the 76 77 keeps popping up around lot... boy if its anywhere near 76 77... fun times ahead for sure... and many late nigh model hugging...

Oh yeah 76-77 would be awesome for sure!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
To enjoy things in life that are good, you first must endure things that suck!
Bring on the snow baby!!!

Online WXHD

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,223
  • Location: Nashville, 37221 Bellevue
  • NWS Storm Spotter. Fan of Extreme Weather.
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 360
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #653 on: November 16, 2018, 08:46:33 AM »
My winterizer for the lawn is thoroughly in the root zone after this weeks rain. Looking forward to some sunny days to dry out the ground so I can get back to mowing. Looks to be a glorious weekend after this cold week.
Earth transforms sunlight's visible light energy into infrared light energy, which leaves Earth slowly because it is absorbed by greenhouse gases. When people produce greenhouse gases, energy leaves Earth even more slowly raising Earth's temperature. http://www.howglobalwarmingworks.org/

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,051
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 907
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #654 on: November 16, 2018, 08:53:51 AM »
yeah... agree... top analog I been seeing... along with 09 10... the 76 77 keeps popping up around lot... boy if its anywhere near 76 77... fun times ahead for sure... and many late nigh model hugging...

Late lit model hugging.  ::guitar::

If we had a winter even remotely like '77, TNWX would implode and explode all at the same time.  Think supernova. 

« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 09:01:55 AM by JayCee »
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline Thundersnow

  • Administrator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 10,696
  • Location: Nolensville
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 233
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #655 on: November 16, 2018, 09:17:32 AM »
Late lit model hugging.  ::guitar::

If we had a winter even remotely like '77, TNWX would implode and explode all at the same time.  Think supernova. 




Offline Coach B

  • Derecho
  • ******
  • Posts: 1,945
  • Location: Marshall County
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 193
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #656 on: November 16, 2018, 11:49:07 AM »

If we had a winter even remotely like '77, TNWX would implode and explode all at the same time.  Think supernova. 

How about the following rough stats pulled from the NOW data for Nashville:

12/29/76 - 1/31/77
20.3" of snow
27 out of 34 days with snowcover
only 1 rain event
7 winter events
12 days with lows in the single digits or lower
only 6 out of 34 days with highs above 40
T or more of snow on 14 days
only 2 days above normal

If you think thats impressive check out what happened the very next winter!
1/9/78 - 3/4/78:
24" of snow
31 days with a T or more of snow
50 days with snowcover

incredible 36 straight days with snowcover from 1/9 thru 2/13
23 days with highs below freezing
10 winter events
2 rain events
only 1 day out of 63 above normal
only 1 day out of 63 with a high over 50

No wonder they thought we were going into an ice age. Hard to believe that was only 40 years ago.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2018, 11:58:09 AM by Coach B »

Offline Charles L.

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 8,890
  • Location: Macon County, TN
  • Twitter:
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 1806
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #657 on: November 16, 2018, 12:24:30 PM »
Ill gladly take that this winter!
Mobile chat link:

http://tennesseewx.com/arrowchat/public/mobile/

SumnerSevereWx and MaconSevereWx #tSpotter Coordinator

Offline JayCee

  • Global Moderator
  • Tornado
  • ******
  • Posts: 3,051
  • Location: East Sevier County
  • Still a wxfreak
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 907
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #658 on: November 16, 2018, 05:12:50 PM »
A testament to how much rain our region has seen this year (and autumn): All 9 dams along the Tennessee River are spilling water, currently, and several lakes are at their highest levels ever for this time of year.

https://www.wbir.com/article/news/local/after-rainy-fall-tva-spilling-at-tennessee-river-dams/51-615047236
"For many years I was self-appointed inspector of snowstorms and rainstorms, and did my duty faithfully, though I never received one cent for it.." 
Henry David Thoreau

Offline wfrogge

  • Severe Thunderstorm
  • ****
  • Posts: 392
  • Location: Oakland
  • Liked:
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
« Reply #659 on: Yesterday at 06:32:24 PM »
Looks like we get cold again after thanksgiving

 

* Recent Posts

California Fires
by mamMATTus
[Yesterday at 09:49:44 PM]
Fall 2018 (Epic Winter Prep Thread)
by wfrogge
[Yesterday at 06:32:24 PM]
BEMIS, TN --Historical Weather Facts, Climate Data, and Rainfall
by Mr. William E. Brantley
[Yesterday at 03:14:50 AM]
Nov 14. 15 snow threat
by JayCee
[November 17, 2018, 05:04:01 PM]
Winter 2018-19
by JayCee
[November 16, 2018, 10:30:27 AM]

Advertisement