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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0110 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008 AREAS AFFECTED...TN/KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 121810Z - 121915Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT EXTENDS THROUGH AL/MS AND NWD INTO TN/KY HAS INITIATED CONVECTION RECENTLY IN A INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. CONVECTION ACROSS TN/KY LIES IN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A BROADER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH AXIS...WHICH HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING FROM BNA USING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA GIVES 3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND NEAR 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR...OVERALL INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS IN WET MICROBURSTS. STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO SMALL HAIL AS WELL. WEAK FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOMEWHAT ERRATIC DEVELOPMENT...WITH STORM MERGERS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND TERRAIN BECOMING THE MAIN INFLUENCES ON SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ..HURLBUT.. 06/12/2008 ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 35168709 34898887 35518942 36908841 37828701 37638595 36728515 35408649 35318675
.NOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSSWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE AREA...THROUGHOUTTHE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ANDSMALL HAIL.
Thanks for updating us on that Clarence. Good Work.
We're not gettting any? Yesterday= East of me...Today= West of me.
The rain went a mile to my east, than a mile to my west. I only got a trace and some thunder.
I got SLAMMED with a wet microburst on the interstate in my little truck.. Almost got blown off the road! (This was in Cullman County, AL, on the way back from acing my HAM exam) Wild ride