What have you learned so far this winter?

[Woodvegas]

For me...

NAM: kicks out way too much QPF and is terrible beyond 36 hours. It remains to be seen if the new version will be much better.

GFS: picks up the storms pretty early but is not very good at predicting the final location of the storms in the medium and long range. It usually shifts the storm tracks to the northwest over time. The GFS has a strong cold bias in the long range and tends to overdo troughs in the east. Storms associated with the passage of cold fronts beyond 5 days rarely pan out unless the low passes to our south and east. Wrap-around snow is usually light.

Euro: overall a better model in the medium and long range but not perfect. For example, other than the slightest hint it did not show the 3-7-08 storm a week out.

And finally: I still have a lot to learn.

[StormNine]

  March is a very fun month

[dave]

This is the best **** weather forum on the Internet!

[BaxterWX]

Brine is really snow repellant.

[Clay]

I don't think that the models are all that bad about the N.W trend normally. They are all having trouble picking up on the ridge that has been stuck all year long.

[Ron_Jarrell]

I don't think that the models are all that bad about the N.W trend normally. They are all having trouble picking up on the ridge that has been stuck all year long.

See bias notes at NCEP. Its a known bias of GFS to push too far south and southeast with cold air troughs out of the north (too aggressive). This leads to the NW correction we all notice in short term ranges.

[Ron_Jarrell]

This is the best **** weather forum on the Internet!

And it wouldn't be possible if it was not for all the generous folks that donated to the site. A BIG thank you to all of the Supporters!

[servocrow]

I have learned that doing a belly flop on the ground during a snowball fight when you're flirting with age 50...is painful.

 


And I did come to fully understand what my Daddy meant when he said..."It's slicker 'n snot out there!"

[Clay]

See bias notes at NCEP. Its a known bias of GFS to push too far south and southeast with cold air troughs out of the north (too aggressive). This leads to the NW correction we all notice in short term ranges.

I've learn that it is not impossible to get an decent accumulating snow in Nashville. 

[Clay]

See bias notes at NCEP. Its a known bias of GFS to push too far south and southeast with cold air troughs out of the north (too aggressive). This leads to the NW correction we all notice in short term ranges.

Seems especially bad this year. St. Louis has gotten so many snow storms that the GFS originally forecasted in our area. (NW Trend)

[Clay]

Brine is really snow repellant.

Tennessee is really snow repellant!!! lol

[McKinley Fairbanks]

  Pyramid Theory:  Before they built the Memphis pyramid the weather in TN, during the winter, was very cold with plenty of snow each winter. I don't even want to talk about the ice storms we had as a kid. The Pyramid somehow splits the systems and has messed up all that used to be and probably caused global warming to boot. Ha! Ha! Ha! That's West Tennessee talk people.

[dave]

I have learned that doing a belly flop on the ground during a snowball fight when you're flirting with age 50...is painful.

 


And I did come to fully understand what my Daddy meant when he said..."It's slicker 'n snot out there!"

I'm hurting myself this morning after about a 1/2 dozen sled rides and the inevitable uphill treks afterwards, during a couple of which I slipped and busted my 40+ yr old arse.  Funny, I didn't even feel it at the time.  Must've been the cold.  Time for some Advil.

[Clay]

Pyramid Theory:  Before they built the Memphis pyramid the weather in TN, during the winter, was very cold with plenty of snow each winter. I don't even want to talk about the ice storms we had as a kid. The Pyramid somehow splits the systems and has messed up all that used to be and probably caused global warming to boot. Ha! Ha! Ha! That's West Tennessee talk people.

Sounds good to me. I am about ready to believe anything

[Clarence]

I have learned not to post anti-snow kind of messages during an impending snowstorm.  I almost got run out of here the other night.