Winter Precip Feb 26th-27th

[Ron_Jarrell]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 272110
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 PM CST WED FEB 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW
A BROKEN CUMULIFORM FIELD WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STILL
EXTENDING FAR UPSTREAM. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE TAPERED OFF
CONSIDERABLY, SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING OVER AREAS EAST
OF NASHVILLE.

SURFACE MAP AT 20Z SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO WEAKEN.

ATMOSPHERIC MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT, SO EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
TOMORROW, LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONSIDERABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID STATE IN
THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH
THE LOW TRACKING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, AM NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR A PLEASANT WEEKEND, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING ON SUNDAY, ALBEIT WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      24  47  36  53 /  10   0  30  70
CLARKSVILLE    22  48  38  53 /  10  10  40  70
CROSSVILLE     19  39  34  50 /  20   0  20  70
COLUMBIA       23  49  36  54 /  10   0  20  70
LAWRENCEBURG   23  51  36  54 /  10   0  10  70
WAVERLY        22  49  38  54 /  10  10  30  70
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

[Nashville_wx]

Funny where the Heavy bands setup. Just picked up enough to whiteness the entire ground again. I prolly have a 1" in the back area that has been shaded. A nice little treat to have blue sky with snow falling On the to the next event! My thread have done well so far, maybe my next one will net a better result than this. I think I hit this one pretty good, if ground temps were cold enough 3" of snow would cover middle tn.

[snowdog]

Nashville and just to the west seems to be the jackpot winner today.  That is where the most banding has set up for the day.  Just left Nashville and it was a whiteout.  Got to my home in Old Hickory and it is sunny skies and not a flake around.  Amazing weather today. 

[jmundie]

Rob, ground temps and no sun. The sun killed our accumulations today, imho

[Nashville_wx]

Hey what can ya do? Cant help the way events setup. Good snow producing showers, but no solid cloud shield. I am heading east to the smokies for the hopefulll event that happens here in the future.

[jmundie]

According to the 18z you might should just stay right here man. We need some bufkit on that junt. Looks to me like pushing 2 feet

[snowwisher]

It's me....the one with no clue about the bufkit etc.....so why does no met mention snow next week?  Just asking.

[servocrow]

It's me....the one with no clue about the bufkit etc.....so why does no met mention snow next week?  Just asking.

Don't worry snowwisher, I don't much about that stuff either.  No met would DARE mention next weeks' potential because as James Spann always says, "It's in voodoo land", and can change quickly.  We can talk about it here, because that's what we do.   

[shaq725]

It's me....the one with no clue about the bufkit etc.....so why does no met mention snow next week?  Just asking.

Because its likely that its fooling us and its very hard with a system like this to predict.I think this could be one of those storms where we just wont know,unless things drastically change, until really that day

[snowwisher]

Thanks.  Well, it's fun to read your posts even if I don't always get it!  Nothing like the rush that it might, might, might snow!

[jmundie]

actually, james spann said its not in voodoo land anymore. voodoo is outside of 7 days, and this is about 5 and a half days away now.

They aren't mentioning it cause they miss so often. They don't want to start forecasting a major blizzard 5 days away, and then we get absolutely nothing. If its showing up tomorrow, they'll start hinting at it... but won't start forecasting and scaring people probably til sat night or sunday morning. by then, we'll know for sure if its nots going to happen, but we won't know that its going to happen until it does. If that makes sense.

[snowwisher]

That does make sense and actually that part I do get.....we don't know if it will till it does.

[Nashville_wx]

Given the 18z its around 20" of snow for Nashville. Seriously. Will it pan out just like that no most likely not. I will take half of that. Point being potential for a huge event as things line up.

[Nashville_wx]

Thanks everyone, was a nice little event! On the the next one! mod can unpin