Winter Precip Feb 26th-27th

[Nashville_wx]

Clay, it is true that precipitation can fall without the radar picking it up. This just happened in Memphis if you can remember reading the AFD. When we were getting snow here the other night it was very low level moisture. As this can cause snow the actual growth zone for snow is low. So we get the tiny little flakes that can come down in medium intensity. Looking at the latest layers we do have moisture available higher up than 850mb. We actually see it for a time in the 725mb-775mb down into the 850mb range. Then that area drys out and we have our 850mb moisture to work with. The best area of growth that we see is in that 750-850mb range. Under that snow ratios are not very high and we get light snow showers flurries. Make sense?  So we only have a short window to actually drop some flakes down.

[Crockett]

If this does all pan out, when should we expect it?  I'm wondering what will happen as far as school tomorrow.  Is there a possibility that it will come in during the school day?

12z GFS soundings indicate temperatures below 0 C through most of the atmosphere by around noon tomorrow, but still in the mid 30s at the surface. There shouldn't be a risk of any trouble on the roads until well after school is out. NAM is a little slower with the cold air.

My thinking is that the ground will be too warm initially for much of anything, but there will definitely be some slick spots develop tomorrow night, as temperatures will become well below freezing and we should see some scattered light snow showers into Wednesday morning. As the low departs, the best moisture goes with it, but we should have sufficient dynamics with the upper trough digging in to squeeze snow showers out of the lower level moisture.

[tornadofreek1]

Well if the flakes start falling here, school will let out.. This is coming from a employee in the school system.. The reason they didn't get out the other day when there was moderate snow was because they were already in school and the temperatures were supposed to rise.. They don't rise tomorrow they fall..? Get it? LOL.. But that's probably a difference in different school systems..

[snowwisher]

Thanks for the responses.  I'm all about the snow and surely a snow day, but I can do without the chaos of school dismissing early.  I'm in Wilson County and if they say it is even close, they will start closing us down.  Also, for those of us who don't understand the technical stuff, what is the thought about snow next week....when?  how much?  I know you are just "predicting" at this point.

[Eric]

Thanks for the responses.  I'm all about the snow and surely a snow day, but I can do without the chaos of school dismissing early.  I'm in Wilson County and if they say it is even close, they will start closing us down.  Also, for those of us who don't understand the technical stuff, what is the thought about snow next week....when?  how much?  I know you are just "predicting" at this point.

I prefer "guessing" or "wishcasting" personally.

[shaq725]

 Well hopefully, I can get out Wednesday. I just hopes it all pans out for the better snowier side.

[snowwisher]

Ok, so what's the wishcast for next week?  In layman's terms please.

[servocrow]

Well hopefully, I can get out Wednesday. I just hopes it all pans out for the better snowier side.

Well, it's not all a loss for you....At least you have Hannah Montana coming to your town!

[tornadofreek1]

That is going to be one crazy thing!! Hannah Montana.. There will be people everywhere in Columbia..

*BACK TO WEATHER*

NWS has taken all the snow for tomorrow out of the forecast, which blows my mind ONCE again.. I'm dumb for falling for it I guess..

[snowwisher]

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!?!?!?!?!?

[shaq725]

Well, it's not all a loss for you....At least you have Hannah Montana coming to your town! 

I know,I think I'm going to go into hiding from all the craziness thats gonna cause.



Yeah I just got done lookin at the NWS forecast it made me sad.
Maybe Hannah Montana can brighten me up from the winter depression in the summer.   

[dave]

*BACK TO WEATHER*
NWS has taken all the snow for tomorrow out of the forecast, which blows my mind ONCE again.. I'm dumb for falling for it I guess..

Wait a minute-- 24 hours out, little to any chance of snow per our friends at OHX... I like our odds for a massive storm!!

[tornadofreek1]

That's one way to look at it Dave.. ahah

[snowwisher]

Come on!  What the heck??  I really thought it was for real this time.  The NWS doesn't get it right do they?  What do the local forecasters say?

[servocrow]

Wait a minute-- 24 hours out, little to any chance of snow per our friends at OHX... I like our odds for a massive storm!!

I like the way you think!

WKRN has lowered their daytime high for tomorrow to 39'....

Just sayin'