Winter Precip Feb 26th-27th

[Nashville_wx]

Looking at the 00Z Euro data is has been pretty consistent on this feature.




Gfs 00Z








CMC Data

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/f72.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/f78.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/f84.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/f90.gif

Nogaps

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/f60.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/f66.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/f72.gif
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NOGAPS_0z/f78.gif

[servocrow]

AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
346 AM CST MON FEB 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE MID STATE. TIME
HEIGHT DIAGRAMS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD INTO THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE BREAKING UP BY AFTERNOON.

NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE
GAINING STRENGTH TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPS IN STORE FOR TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

FROPA TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...REASONABLE INSTABILITIES WILL BE COUPLED WITH A 35 TO 40 KT
850 MB FLOW WITHIN THE FAVORABLE OMEGA BAND. THUS...LOOKS AS THOUGH
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. POPS FOR MON NT WILL BE CATEGORICAL
AS MODELS INDICATE THAT DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AT 06Z.

COLDER AIR TO QUICKLY WORK IN ON TUES. HOWEVER...POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. BY
18Z..850 MB TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE THE PREVAILING PRECIP TYPE.

SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL NOT BE TOO SHABBY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT SOME ACCUMULATION COULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PLATEAU. MY POPS FOR TUES AND TUES NT
WILL BE IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE SO NO ACCUM AMOUNT WILL BE
MENTIONED.

AM FLURRIES WILL PERSIST FOR WED MORNING AND THEN PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL OCCUR.

FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS...NOT TOO MUCH LOVE FROM THE MAV THIS CYCLE.
WILL TRY MY LUCK AT UNDERCUTTING TODAY BY 2 AT BNA...AND THEN BY 3
ON WED. A 40 DEGREE MAV HIGH MAY BE A STRETCH ON WED AS 850 MB TEMPS
WILL BE AT -12C AND CLOUDS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
GOING PTCDLY. MIDDLE 3 PERIODS LOOKING SOLID AND TOUGH TO BEAT.
HENCE...WILL TIP HAT TO THE MAV FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUES NT
PERIODS. GOOD JOB MAV!

[Eric]

WILL TIP HAT TO THE MAV FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUES NT
PERIODS. GOOD JOB MAV!

Looks like someone woke up in a rather jovial mood this morning. 

[tornadofreek1]

Looks that way doesnt it ERIC?? LOL...

[servocrow]

Looks like someone woke up in a rather jovial mood this morning. 

Yeah, I'm not so sure "tipping" the hat to anything outside the over-the-counter headache pill aisle is good considering what's happened this winter.

[Ron_Jarrell]

I like how the MAV can show us love!

*Jerry Maguire flashback* ... or was it supposed to show us the money?? Either way.... 

[snowdog]

Speaking of this winter Servo, I saw an article this morning talking about this is the most snow cover in the US since 1966 I think.  Also worldwide one of the colder winters in a while.  Figures we dont see squat while everyone else around the globe is making snowmen.  It even snowed in Baghdad this winter.   

[servocrow]

Speaking of this winter Servo, I saw an article this morning talking about this is the most snow cover in the US since 1966 I think.  Also worldwide one of the colder winters in a while.  Figures we dont see squat while everyone else around the globe is making snowmen.  It even snowed in Baghdad this winter.   

*sniff sniff*  DON'T REMIND ME!!!! 

curls up in fetal position and whimpers softly to self while nibbling on some bacon

[shaq725]

Davis Nolan's latest post.

We’ve got lots to talk about, so let’s get to it:

First of all, after a mild afternoon, we are expecting a line of showers and storms to push in by around midnight through the early morning hours. This does not look like a widespread severe weather situation, but we should expect some gusty winds and lightning and thunder overnight. Some of the storms, especially in southwest and south Middle Tennessee may prompt a few brief severe thunderstorm warnings. With low pressure passing just to our north and a strong upper jet, this could have been a more dangerous situation. But it does not look like the atmosphere will have a chance to become “primed” enough here. I’m not complaining about that. We will be monitoring the situation for any changes. Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlook.

Then the cold air pushes in. On Tuesday look for a morning high in the low 40s with temps falling through the 30s during the day. From noon on we could see some snow showers pushing in from the northwest as an upper level trough rides over the cold and still moist air. This should result in some snow showers Tuesday afternoon, evening and Wednesday morning. This type of situation does not result in a “big” snow, but could provide a dusting to 1/2″ in many areas with up to an inch in some, especially northern and eastern counties. We could have snow falling during Tuesday evening’s rush hour commute. Temps will be falling to below freezing pretty quickly by dark, and that could result in some slick spots on the roadways Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning should bring lows in the mid 20s, so the morning rush hour could be a problem then, as well. It’s possible there will be some school closings on Wednesday, depending on how it all pans out. Maybe the kids will have just enough to build a snowman.

[dave]

Davis' post reminds me of a funny photo of my youngest son from about 5 years ago...  It was a winter like this, very little snow all year.  The one and only time that year when we had any snow to speak of, him and his mother went out on the back porch and scraped up enough to make a sloppy, drippy little snowman about 1 foot tall.  It made for a very cute photo which is framed on my desk at home.  But at the same time, everytime I look at it I think just how pathetic and unpredictable our yearly snowfall can be around here!



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[Ron_Jarrell]

I've got one of those "furry snowmen" pics myself. Lots of fur on the snowman from the dead grass that gets picked up with the snow. 

[Nashville_wx]

Looking to the 18Gfs data I feel we will see upto 1" of accumulations and possible a bit more in favored areas. Forecasting Ground accumulations are very hard when we do not have a temp that is support to accumulations at the onset of snow. So given that areas more along the Tn/Ky border I think will have more of a accumulation. We might see the same amount fly in the sky, but its really banking on temps for accumulations even tho small. SREF backs up this idea. None the less. look for snow showers with a dusting to 1". I think thats a safe bet at this point. At the best we could see overall 1" area wide. We have a pretty strong vort with good moisture @ 850mb.

[Clay]

Another tricky thing about those wrap around flurries are that many times you can have moderate snow falling and see nothing on the radar.

[snowwisher]

If this does all pan out, when should we expect it?  I'm wondering what will happen as far as school tomorrow.  Is there a possibility that it will come in during the school day?

[Clay]

I'd say a half inch on the roads to get Metro schools out.