March 4 Snow Potential

[jmundie]

12z GFS absolutely destroys us a couple days in a row. Big time cold air rolling in, possibly higher than 10:1 ratios with the upper level cold being below -10 C. Rob, need bufkit immediately. So I can pee my pants and be incredibly disappointed when it verifies as all rain.

Maps





And just for kicks and giggles, look at what the mid atlantic to nyc would get from the same storm



And storm two just 2-3 days later





Granted, all this is post truncation, so take it for what its worth. But it looks like the GFS is modeling an -NAO, and many have been forecasting this for march. If these two storms verified back to back like this, one, it would shut down nashville likely for the entire week, and two, it would make the last 4 years of snowless winters completely worth it.

[Thundersnow]

Fun, fun, fun.  We could only dream at this point. 

[WeatherRocker]

*waits for it*

[Snowman]

Realizes its 300+ Hours out and Will Likely Not Happen. 

[Woodvegas]

If this happens it will be sheer coincidence and luck that the GFS predicted it. In any event as long as there is a trough in the east with cold air we still have a chance at accumulating snow during the next 3 weeks or so.

[StormNine]

  Look on the bright side Nashville lastest ever snowgfall and winter weather was 1.5 inches on April 15th 1910 and was also the latest freeze on record.  If we can get some cold air blocking winter isnt 100% done till 4/25.  That is just a 100% optismic look on it though.

[Nashville_wx]

Given a 300hour run to verified perfectly is almost impossible. What trends and overall Teleconnections are telling us is that in the extended things could line up for something to occur. I have been saying that march will be our month for snow here in Tn. Timing at the 300hour range can be off days. Lots of cold air has been locked away, and now it is going to be on the move. +AO is on the decline.

18Z bufkit data has about 1.7" for tues afternoon through the evening time. 12Z has something similar. Lets watch the overall 500mb pattern and see where the pv goes.

[Clay]

Davis Nolan said a half inch or more was Possible Tuesday night.

[WeatherRocker]

Yes, and it is also possible that my souffle doesn't fall.

[Nashville_wx]

Well things are starting to look better.The ridge in the SE has finally succumb to the PNA. After doing some reading this morning major trough amplifications could happen for the east. Ensembles are hinting at this as well. Hard to nail anything down in a long term period, but something I feel should show up on the models in the days to come. We could have a couple chances at getting a 2-3" snowfall in with possible a 1 time storm if condition come together during TC chances.

[bingo299]

well see

[dave]

Being the etnernal optimist that I am, I just wanted to point out that Nashville's biggest snowfall was in March, after all...

[Clay]

Hot D*mn!! That's a big'n. I see some consistency.


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[jmundie]

Taken literally, over 12 hours that's what, 13 inches of snow?

[Thundersnow]

Looks like a right-on-the-line situation (as usual)... as in, hope you get some wet flakes mixing in on the back side of all that heavy rain. 

Who knows how much that situation will fluctuate between now and then.

There's actually some interest in severe weather possibilities in that general timeframe.