Winter Wx 2/27-28?

[dave]

I haven't started a new topic since joining... and since Feb 28th is my birthday, I thought I would see if anyone is willing to jump on the snow bandwagon for that day?

Some model agreement already this far out from what I have seen?

[Thundersnow]

Uh... check out the Euro:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html



Can you say Gulf Coast superstorm bomb?! 

[Clay]

Holy crap, 168 hours! That is not even voodoo! Even assuming that models will likely trend the Rain/Snow line Northwest and downplay precip some we could still get some snow if that panned out. Happy Birthday.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Wasn't it JB that just mentioned the 3/10/93 analog to this pattern just a couple days ago?? 

[Nashville_wx]

How much precip falls after the 540 line is through?

[Crockett]

Color me skeptical at this point. That setup just screams "suppression." But that is sure a pretty run of the Euro, no? If that verified, a lot of winter weenies in the Southeast would need mouth-to-mouth. Even the GFS, though obviously not as nice, isn't totally ugly. At least we have some good model agreement that we might see cold air dig in and stick around for more than a day, which we haven't seen since early January. We can work on getting the GFS to come around to the Euro's way of thinking on the rest of it.

[dave]

Even if we only got 1/2 the storm that is showing up, that would still be a great way to end such a crappy winter, eh?

[Clay]

Even if we only got 1/2 the storm that is showing up, that would still be a great way to end such a crappy winter, eh?

Yep, but the theme of computer modeling this winter is Murphy's Law. What can flip-flop will flip-flop.

[Thundersnow]

According to a post on this at EasternUsWx, some recent runs of the Canadian and GFS this period indicate a top analog date of....


March 12-13, 1993

[Nashville_wx]

I wouldnt bank on the JMA

[Eric]

WTF!!!  March '93???  Are you freakin' kidding me???  Sure is a pretty run though.  And there has been consensus model agreement for the most part for a couple of days now, yes?  Hmmm....

[Nashville_wx]

[Crockett]

I was waiting for the March '93 comparisons to start (I don't read EUSWX often and didn't know it had already been started).

Considering we got almost 2 feet of snow up here out of the blizzard of '93, I'll take something similar out of this setup. But I'll believe it when I see it.

[Thundersnow]

WTF!!!  March '93???  Are you freakin' kidding me???  Sure is a pretty run though.  And there has been consensus model agreement for the most part for a couple of days now, yes?  Hmmm....

Don't worry, it will probably be gone from the model runs tomorrow... probably...

[lyngo]

The March 1993 analog has been CONSISTENTLY one of the analogs for this period for a few days now.  I think today it actually moved up to #1 or #2.  Not saying it'll happen but the model consensus has been that something pretty substantial could be in the makings during this timeframe.  I'd like to see another bomb like that one....except a little more west where Nashville could get a good dumpin'.