February 20th -21st - Wintry Weather Possible

[LHSRAIDERS]

Should I start thinking I am going to have a good LLLOOONNNGGGGG weekend??  COME ON!!!!!!! 

[Thundersnow]

Should I get excited about this one yet?

Better give it at least a couple of more days. 

[Snowman]

No. Do not get your hopes up.

[joemomma]

The moisture will dry up and the temps will be way too warm.  *Not biting on this one*

[Snowman]

Posted that in the wrong section. As far as this system, I am up in the air about what will happen.

[Snowman]

From Mem AFD...

THE MODELS AGREE THAT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BENIGN. IT IS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THAT IS A REAL THORN
IN THE SIDE. POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS NOT AGREED
UPON BY ANY MODEL. HOWEVER ALL MODELS AGREE ON MEASURABLE
RAINFALL/PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY...PRECIP TYPE REMAINS A PROBLEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

[Eric]

Evidently, there is some disgreement amonst the GFS and its fellow models concerning this next system.  According to Morristown NWS, they seem to be gradually decreasing temps as the time frame nears..

GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV/GFSX GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THESE TOO
HAVE SUCCUMBED TO POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...TRENDING
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WITH EACH RUN.

If I'm understanding what they are trying to say, which is NOT a given, looks to me like the forecasted temps seem to be a touch warmer than what they are in actuality.  This could bode well for us locally.  I haven't even glanced at the forecasted highs for the 20th and 21st yet.  At least the "possibility" of winter precip is nearing, which is more than we've seen this pitiful winter season.

[dave]

I am going to be the offical nay-sayer on this one, just because last week I really enjoyed nay-saying the non-event of yesterday.

I have not studied the situation, nor am I qualified to do so.  I will just stick my neck out there and say "ain't nothin gonna happen, folks".   But, like last time,  I HOPE I AM WRONG!!!! 

[Thundersnow]

overall, temperatures over the next week have definitely trended cooler.  just a couple of days ago, there was a prospect of severe weather with at least 60s possible by the weekend.  progged temps have been cut back considerably.  now, we have this borderline situation with cold rain and/or wintry precip chances late in the week.

gotta love late winter flux

[Thundersnow]

I will just stick my neck out there and say "ain't nothin gonna happen, folks".   

I doubt you're really sticking your neck out that far... 

But, as always, we'll see what happens.

[StormNine]

  Looks like for dinner on Wedensday/Thursday I will take some clouds with a side of a snow platter, some some freezing rain salad and a sleet drink.  Prefer a enviorment of 32 or below for consumption of this meal or the weather diner will cheap and send us some cold rain left overs.

[Nashville_wx]

18NAM bufkit  brings rain in wed morning from 6am to 10am. Much different picture than the Gfs. Ahead to Thursday the nam brings in snow around 10am quickly changing over to sleet till 4pm. After that we see things turn very bad. Even at 10am when the sleet starts 850mb temps start to warm and do not stop. However we have a very cold layer @ -5 from 875mb down to the surface. Actual surface temps do not raise above freezing till close to midnight. Anything that falls after 4pm looks to be freezing rain. The NAM calls for .244" of freezing rain during this time. After this we turn over to rain as the entire layer under 850mb become above freezing it seems. Areas around 500ft in elevation will see ZR the longest with accumulations of .332" . Guess this was a good post to make. No first calls from me tho, I just saw the potential. The way this season is things change every hour:)

[Clay]

Ice, rain, snow, freezing rain... time to break out the skew-t plots.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/compskwframe.html

[snowdog]

I have no idea how to read those skew plots.  Ron tried to explain it once, but I didnt get it. 

[jmundie]

Rob are you using the new NAM or the old one? I think I figured out why we saw different stuff last time, they did some tinkering with the NAM.

Old one is here

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

New one here

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/