February 20th -21st - Wintry Weather Possible

[Nashville_wx]

Looking into the up coming week I see wed night into thursday morning being a hazardous time. The Euro seemed to pick up on this first then came the Gfs this afternoon.

12Z Gfs

850mb temps
( Notice the strong High pressure building)












( 1040H Now in place)



(Notice @ 90 hours 2M temp further south than 850temp




Euro 12Z










12Z CMC

[Clay]

Whew, lots of modeling in one post!

[Nashville_wx]

Latest 12Z GFS BUFKIT- 

Tues 3am-12Pm. .7" as SN. Entire profile is freezing till 11am or so.

Wed 9AM - 9PM. . 1/10" of sleet from 9am -12am changing over to SN.
 - Snow accumulations of 1.2" @ 10:1 ratio.

[Nashville_wx]

[Nashville_wx]

nice dry slot as you can see. Humidity right now @ 38%.

[Crockett]

I hope this doesn't offend anyone, but images that are posted within these threads from the NCEP (or any other outside site) don't take up any space except from the server which is hosting the images.

Now making it longer to load the thread for poor folks like me who are still on dial-up at home, that's a different story . . .

[mark in lavergne]

I am sorry but I dont think posting the models will really help any of us...the models have yet to be right this year so why post them and get everyones hopes up? doesnt make since to go by the models if they havent been right! just my thoughts.

[Clay]

I am sorry but I dont think posting the models will really help any of us...the models have yet to be right this year so why post them and get everyones hopes up? doesnt make since to go by the models if they havent been right! just my thoughts.

That is true, but remember that almost every forecast involves some type of computer model. They may not be 100% accurate but it is better then someone sticking random weather icons in the seven day forecast.

[Snowman]

Memphis AFD... Nashvillewx may be on to something.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST LATER ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS TURN BACK OUT OF
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A CANADIAN AIRMASS
MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND STALLING IT TO
OUR SOUTH. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO COME AROUND TO THIS
SOLUTION WITH ITS LATEST RUN...WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THE 12Z NAM IS STILL STALLING THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH OF OUR AREA...WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT WITH
ITS LATEST 18Z RUN HAS COME INTO ALIGNMENT WITH MOVING THE FRONT
THROUGH. THIS SCENARIO DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING...AS A SHALLOW
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS NOW SUGGESTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN...OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN UNTIL THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION. IT IS A BIT TROUBLING THOUGH
THAT THE MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE WINTRY
SOLUTION.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Thread edited.

Let's all get back to talking about weather or bacon or racing or something... mmmmk? 

[Snowman]

I am interested as to what comes our way Wednesday night and Thursday. Maybe a little freezing rain?

[Ron_Jarrell]

I am interested as to what comes our way Wednesday night and Thursday. Maybe a little freezing rain?

I sure hope not. Another ice storm does not sound fun. Snow yes, ice no.

[Snowman]

Amen, OHX did not mention anything bout it though.   

[Snowman]

I think it would warm up Thursday as the day wears on so it would prolly only be a morning issue.

[Eric]

Amen, OHX did not mention anything bout it though.   

And that surprises you?

 

Just like everyone else, I would love to see winter precip, but absolutely no ice.  Last ice storm I was in was in '93 in Clarksville.  We never lost power, thank goodness, but we couldn't get out of our little hole for 3 days.  Not fun, no sir, not fun.

When do you think OHX will come on board, if they do?  I'll take 3 hours before the fit hits the shan.  Over/under is 8 hours...clearly I'm takin the under!