February 18th-19th Flurry Chances

[Thundersnow]

Thank you much, Ron.

It sort of looked like she was in the grocery store before the big snow and discovered that they had run out of milk and bread...

[servocrow]

Thank you much, Ron.

It sort of looked like she was in the grocery store before the big snow and discovered that they had run out of milk and bread...

And then, *freaks out and goes to wine aisle to buy that instead*?

Was there BACON??

[Eric]

Looks like there may be naked snow angels in the offering yet!  Just have to worry about frostbite...

[Crockett]

Much as I'd like to see something like what the 12z GFS is showing actually come to fruition, I'm not buying it. The model can't lock down on where it wants to place the low; I'm sure it will change again by the 0z run tonight. Plus even if the 12z run verified as far as the low placement/strength is concerned, how much you want to bet that warm air advection would spoil the party?

[Eric]

Much as I'd like to see something like what the 12z GFS is showing actually come to fruition, I'm not buying it. The model can't lock down on where it wants to place the low; I'm sure it will change again by the 0z run tonight. Plus even if the 12z run verified as far as the low placement/strength is concerned, how much you want to bet that warm air advection would spoil the party?

Buzzkill.....

 

[Thundersnow]

Looks like there may be naked snow angels in the offering yet!  Just have to worry about frostbite...

I believe I'll avoid going sledding in your neighborhood.   

[Eric]

I believe I'll avoid going sledding in your neighborhood.   

Trust me my friend, you aren't the only one!!

[Clay]

haha you all though I was crazy for starting a thread concerning this weekends potential snow. Have some faith y'all!

[Nashville_wx]

Anyone look at the 18Z NAM. More weather porn!

[snowdog]

Saw the 18z WRF...more weather porn.  Nice Low sliding south throwing up lots of frozen precip.  Hurry and talk about it now before it is gone.   

[Nashville_wx]

NAM is in its long range, but gosh, shows a solid 7-10" of snow. Gfs is showing a big hit end of weekend. Lots of thing up in the air right now. We get get hammered in the next week, all those who said winter was is over gets a hotdog

[Thundersnow]

Just for fun... here's a snowfall forecast output based on the 18Z NAM for Saturday morning. 

[dave]

That's beautiful - like fine art! 

Unfortunately it is also the closest we are going to get to a significant snowfall this year.

Me losty all hopey- but I would love to be wrong!!!

[Clay]

This looks like the snow forecast we had about 2 years ago! (it was a bust)

[Thundersnow]

AFD snippet from OHX this afternoon:

IN THE EXT FCST...NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMES BACK AT US ON FRIDAY IN
THE FORM OF A SFC LOW WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
PRECIP LOOKS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS TN BUT TEMPS MAY SUPPORT RAIN OR
SNOW FOR FRI NT.

THEN ANOTHER...AND POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM
ATTEMPTS TO REAR ITS HEAD ON SUNDAY. ITS STILL A GOOD 5 DAYS OFF BUT
BEARS WATCHING AS THIS SYSTEM MAY CARRY A CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH
FAVORABLE CYCLOGENESIS ON ITS EASTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY.
FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR SUNDAY...AND
THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUN NT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPS DROP WELL BELOW 0C.

NAM going bonkers with system on Friday night (which is as far as the NAM goes at 84 hours).  GFS more interested in system on Sunday.  The NWS seems to think Sunday system may be more significant as well.