February 18th-19th Flurry Chances

[Clay]

Well since no one has done so yet I will go ahead and start the weekend storm system topic.
Take a look at the 18Z DGEX Model... looks good!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html

[Eric]

I see the low passing to our south, put the 540 line is still to our northwest.  If I'm interpreting that right, looks like another cold rain with a wrap around scenario.

[Clay]

Well I forgot to add this... look at the forecasted temps. Upper 20s to lowers 30s in Nashville, so you have got to wonder about a snow, sleet, freezing rain mix with some shallow cold air in place even though the 540 thickness line is slightly to the north of Middle Tennessee.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Are you serious? A thread on the DGEX at over 140 hours? I know we're desparate for some winter wx, but cmon.

[Clay]

Well honestly no model is that accurate past 140 hours out (or sooner than that I might add), but hey just tryin' to start a little conversion... And yes I am gettin a little snow hungry... can you blame me? It's been one crummy winter so far. Oh, I might add its about 138 hours out.

[Nashville_wx]

I do not see anything on on 16-17th.

NCEP Downscaled GFS / Extended Eta (DGEX) Home Page

NCEP is making daily real-time parallel production runs of the Downscaled GFS / Extended Eta (DGEX). To run the DGEX, the 78-h operational NAM forecast is interpolated to smaller 12 km Eta domains, and a 78-h to 192-h forecast is made, using the previous 6-h old GFS forecast for lateral boundary conditions. Click here to see the computational domain of the DGEX runs over the CONUS and Alaska.

This is the current schedule:

0000Z, 1200Z : Alaska

0600Z, 1800Z : CONUS

This is not something that you can soley base a forecast on. Given the range of that model most are going to be experimental or a sister of a larger scale model.
Given that its not something you dont look at( why would they make a model) but its something that you use a tool. The Euro,Gfs,canadian, ukmet are all better models to bade agreement on and forecasts from.

[Nashville_wx]

Gfs has this on the 12Z







12Z Euro



\

[Clay]

Just think though. If the projected track of the low is shifted over to Chattanooga then things could become interesting. These types of lows can be tricky to forecast. There is still time for models to change also.

[Nashville_wx]

Track is only one aspect.

[Clay]

..and having enough cold air in place

[Clay]

Well the 0z has a rain changing to snow event on the backside which usually doesn't translate into to much accumulation. The GFS still painting the low a bit too far to the west (right over Nashville) for a good snow.

[Snowman]

This is 6 days away. Way to far out. Would be nice though.

[Nashville_wx]

Neither of those maps really show snow.

This map shows precip after the 850mb line has come through. 00Z Gfs shows snow shower activity Sunday night through Monday night. Take a look at the 500mb maps.zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Clay]

Even if we were to get a brief changeover to snow we wouldn't fair to well because of the wet surfaces.

[Nashville_wx]

To add you your thread.

00Z Euro for you.

168 Hours. Still along way to go



Nogaps 144 hours





interesting on the CMC this fri/sat.















BUT. look at this

Note the 850c line