February 12-13th Wintry Weather

[Nashville_wx]

 Well just when you think things are dead and there is no fun to watch we get a chance to take a look a this upcoming tues.

Running todays 12Gfs OP run on bufkit we come to a RN to ZR to SN event. The change from Rain to Freezing rain occurs at 3:00 Am Wed morning. The thing that
concerns me is that .536" of precip falls during that time. From 720mb to 925mb or is is above freezing. Looks like from around 400-1000ft or so will be at the freezing level. That could cause major ice accumulations. The change from ZR to SN will come around 6AM with accumulations of 1.7" , snow ending around noon. We stay below freezing till about 10Am thursday morning creating serious driving problems.


12Z Gfs

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I am not really calling for any event as we know how things go. The one thing that I dont like is that the Gfs Ensembles are not really inline with the OP run in that time frame. The thing I do like is that the OP is in better agreement with the other model runs in some fassion. The gfs Ensembles seems a little out of wack. Looking at the most recent runs the 18gfs is moves in with a colder solution and a better overall setup. Nothing to really freak over just something to use when looking the agreement and model trends from one to another.

18GFS

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126 Hour



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850mb temp

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I will leave things alone for now. Lets see a eye out.

[Nashville_wx]

12Z CMC

144 hours



MRF

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[Nashville_wx]

Also you can see the phasing difference in the 12z 500mb and 18z 500mb.

[mark in lavergne]

its not going to snow so I am not going to get my hopes up....i want it to warm up now for my sinues's are really bothering me with this weather changes!

[Nashville_wx]

No its impossible to snow in feb We still have a solid 6 weeks for snow, do not turn to the dark side.

[Nashville_wx]

UPDATE:

18Z GFS bufkit. Looking into the latest 18Gfs data I want to note the change. We start off as rain per the 12Gfs. The big change is that at 12PM tues sounding suggest Sleet. Using Omega values this shows 6.8" of sleet from noon till 3pm. Then from 3pm to 6pm we see another 1.7". using a 10:1 ratio we see a total of 5.5" of sleet and about a tenth of a inch of snow to finish. Temps do not rise above freezing till 3am Thursday morning. This is still very early but I want to to keep everyone aware. Even if it does not happen watching it will only help you learn

[Thundersnow]

Using Omega values this shows 6.8" of sleet from noon till 3pm.

Wha??? 

[Nashville_wx]

The sounding suggests that we have a warm layer from 875mb-925mb then we go below freezing in the sounding. Using sleet accumulations is kinda risky but its showing the overall picture. We are flirting with a ZR/IP event with a possible snow ending. Of course its way too soon to lock anything in, but given what we are shown now, we should take interest. Maybe something will become of this, better snow than ice.

[Nashville_wx]

Wha??? 

6' in a 3 hour span?? Thanks what im thinking. I am pretty sure I am using bufkit correctly. I will read up a little more and see. But as I said earlier its something to raise a eyebrow over:) Not just one model is hinting at something during this time frame, and more than 1 says frozen precip.

[shaq725]

We will never see winter weather ,but I guess there is always hope.Never know maybe Mother Nature is holding off for a March 1993 type storm...........aahhh dreaming is so much fun.

[Nashville_wx]

Current BNA forcast: I think this will change tonight over tomorrow as we get closer to the timeframe. Tues night a Rain/snow mix will most likely be issued along with flurries wed morning. No reason to be overdo it right now, but as things get closer things will change


Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.

Tuesday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 38.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 48.

[Nashville_wx]

I am very intersted to see tonights 00Gfs. Looking at the changes from 12Z to 18Z I am wonder if 00Z will keep the position of the high pressure as per 18Z run. Could be have a ice storm brewing?

[Woodvegas]

2/7 12z Euro looks similar to the 18z GFS to my eye. As usual the big question is how much moisture will be left once the temps drop to freezing.

[Nashville_wx]

Till me 00GFS fellas!

[CookevilleWeatherGuy]

WAY TOO FAR OUT (in time) to be accurate.....setting yourselves up to be disappointed AGAIN.