A FLURRY (or more) of ACTIVITY February 1st?

[Nashville_wx]

Well I have been sitting low waiting for something to watch. Odd enough this tues night keeps looking better and better. NAM really has the cold pushing in while keeping the precip to the west. Will the precip exit before the temps will support snow??? Its very possible that we could see a changeover from Rain ending as Snow. Also Thursday night into friday we have something else. This thread is to discuss the upcoming possibilities this week of winter weather.

[Ron_Jarrell]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
328 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL PUSH PRECIP
BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDS EXTENSIVE
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDSTATE. SOUTH FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 40S TONIGHT. FRONT MOVES QUICKLY...MOVING EWD FROM CNTRL AR
TO THE SMOKY MTNS IN 12 HRS...TRANSLATES TO A 40 MPH MOVEMENT.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
BACK SIDE MOISTURE MOVES OUT QUICKLY...THUS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A SGFNT CHANCE OF ANY FROZEN PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT.

SFC RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON WED WITH SELY FLOW
RETURNING WED NGT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN TEXAS. THE TEXAS
LOW MOVES NEWD ON THU PUSHING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AS THE
LOW PASSES THROUGH WEST TN. AGAIN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS NOT AS POTENT AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND FEWER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED.

LESS COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND BACKSIDE MOISTURE PULLS AWAY
QUICKLY...THUS LITTLE IF ANY FROZEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SFC RIDGE
OCCUPIES THE AREA FRI NGT AND SAT WITH SOUTH FLOW RETURNING SAT NGT.

[Nashville_wx]

Another worthless AFD by BNA. 

[Nashville_wx]

There is no reason to completely write this off. Nothing to get excited over, but something to watch.  Ron can we boycott the nws office here in nashville. Its just pathetic.

[Snowman]

I have to agree with BNA this time. If things still look like they did on the 18z this time tomorrow, then maybe we can get excited. Hopefully things trend southeast. Looks like nothing to me though.

[Ron_Jarrell]

There is no reason to completely write this off. Nothing to get excited over, but something to watch.  Ron can we boycott the nws office here in nashville. Its just pathetic.

The folks at OHX do a great job. There has been talk of their staff being "old school" and not doing indepth AFDs as us amateurs would like, but that fault is minor. They are the pros in this business, not us. We can debate their forecasts and outlooks, but when it comes to severe wx warnings and official forecasts, this forum will never, NEVER take the place of official products issued by the NWS. I want to be clear on this. Their job is the protection of life and property, ours is a hobby.

Nashville_wx, my reply above is not solely directed at your comment, but a statement on the standing of this forum when it comes to disagreeing with the NWS.

[Snowman]

Ron Howes did mention tonight a chance of a few snow showers on the back end tomorrow but I just dont think it yet. 

[Nashville_wx]

I could really care less about who is the "pro" or who does it for a hobby. I know plenty of pros that dont know there head from the ground. My good friend works in Huston for a Energy Trading company.He is a full time MET. I know how much BS there is. Since I dont actually know the people at OHX I cannot fairly say they are good/bad. But from what I have seen with there AFD and from what I have heard from people that know the office and have worked in other offices, my opinion stands. Pathetic is a bit harsh but it was out of frustration. Im sure they do a fine job better than most of us.The whole point of this post was to bring attention  to the fact that we are active and have something to watch. Also everyone is entitled to there own opinion. I am not here to please anyone, just report my thoughts on the weather.

[Ron_Jarrell]

Nashville_wx, no one said anything about you being unable to state your opinion or "please anyone". We are all a bit frustrated at lack of weather to watch, but let's not turn this into something completely off topic. If you have a further response about the NWS you can PM or email me directly and I will be happy to discuss with you, but any further comment in this thread on this subject/debate/whatever you want to call it will be deleted.

[Nashville_wx]

 Lets look at tonights runs 00NAM is already out? Who will do the honors of posting the maps

Edited- You've got a PM.

[Nashville_wx]

[Ron_Jarrell]

That model run definitely looks like we could have a changeover to some frozen precip.

[Nashville_wx]

000
FXUS64 KOHX 290247
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
847 PM CST MON JAN 28 2008

.UPDATE...
VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS AT 1K FEET THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL EASILY BE TRANSPORTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GOOD HELICITY
THIS EVENING OFF OHX 00Z RAOB WITH 495 M2/S2 BETWEEN 0 AND 3 KM.
SOUNDING IS VERY DRY IN LOWER LEVELS SO BELIEVE WHAT WE ARE
SEEING ON DOPPLER FOR THE MOST PART IS PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE
GROUND AT THIS TIME.

WITH LOW LEVEL JET KICKING IN TEMPS PROBABLY WILL NOT FALL MUCH
MORE SO HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A TAD IN GRIDDED DATA AND WILL
DO SO IN ZFP SHORTLY.

WATER VAPOR THIS EVENING SHOWING VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PUNCHING
THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL REACH PLAINS STATES BY MID-DAY
TUESDAY. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS MIDDLE TN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 0 TO 3 KM HELICITY
AT 642 M2/S2 BY 00Z WED WHILE SWEAT REACHES 401. FORECAST HODOGRAPH
AT 00Z WED HAS TROUTLINE CONFIGURATION WHILE 150 KT SPEED MAX
PUNCHES THIS WAY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO
BE CLOSELY WATCHED BY LATER SHIFTS.

UPDATE OUR IN A FEW MINS.

BOYD

[Nashville_wx]

Man some changes in the 00NAM run. Ron looking at the end of the week, interesting to say the least. Given its the long range area for the NAM which this year has taken a beating we need to be cautious. That given tonights GFS run should be very interesting. 850Mb Low on the NAM needs to be a bit farther south but we are trending in the right direction. Only thing is this can turn around as it usually does and play out as first thought.

[bossfan2000]

Looking at the NAM text output..some interesting things:

1) At hour 24 we are 59F...at 30 hours we are 25F..quite a drop!
2) .25 inches of precip falls in that period..hard to tell if it clears out before the temps fall. The front is moving through so fast..that precip might not actually be as far behind the front as it looks (since those maps show 6 hour totals).
3) For the thursday system at hour 78... we are sitting around 37 degrees with 0.80 inches of rain (ugh). temps warm as you go up to 700mb. at hour 84 temps fall to 0C almost all the way down to 950mb, but surface stays put at 37F (with another .14 inches falling).

UPDATE..looking at the 40km NAM which goes out to 30 hours..
4) at hour 27 we are 46F at hour 30 we are 25..but it breaks precip into 3 hr intervals..and 0.00 falls from 27-30..so the precip is gone by the time the cold air is here..so that map really is deceiving.

This isnt a forecast..just looking at the raw numbers from the NAM to flesh out the maps a bit.