Minor Snow Chance Friday Night

[Thundersnow]

Alright, my disappointment-weary denizens...

We have one more chance of a little white stuff before we're out of the cold pattern for a while.

It isn't a great chance.  But, the NWS shows a 30% chance overnight on Friday night. 

Nashville AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 PM CST WED JAN 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 20Z SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST, BISECTING MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A
PESKY AREA OF CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO SOUTH
AND EAST OF NASHVILLE. BELIEVE THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE DURING THE
EVENING AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, BUT AM STILL GOING PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT IN THESE AREAS.

ATMOSPHERIC MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MID
STATE TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY, TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN EVEN COLDER AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS, STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
EXPEDITING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SO THAT WE`LL BE EVEN COLDER
TOMORROW NIGHT THAN TONIGHT.

A LOW-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW, BUT WE`LL CLEAR BACK OUT BY THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, BRINGING CONSIDERABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PEAK
NEAR 60 DEGREES ON MONDAY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE MID STATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING
FOR THIS EVENT.

Of course, with temperatures projected to be in the mid-40s on Saturday with a warming trend after that, it ain't gonna stick around.  But, perhaps there might be just a little something early Saturday morning. 

[lyngo]

Maybe February will be kind to us.  I'd be surprised if we don't have at least one more winter threat to track over the next few weeks.  La Nina's typically finish strong in the cold category so maybe we'll get lucky.  We can still get some decent snow in early March but by that time I'm ready for spring and the golf course....

[msdawg911]

MEG's confidence is very low regarding this event:

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...ALLOWING
FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN THURSDAY. FORECAST BECOMES MUCH
MORE TRICKY HEADING INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS...THE POTENTIAL EVENT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE
A LOW QPF ONE...JUST LIKE OUR MOST RECENT EVENT. OPERATIONAL
GFS/EURO HAVE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR POPS DURING THIS TIME BETWEEN 10 AND 20.
THEN ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE NAM CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE DRY
SIDE. AS A MATTER OF FACT...TAKING A QUICK PEAK AT THE 18Z
NAM...IT KEEPS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH DRY. WITH WHATEVER MOISTURE
THERE IS AVAILABLE...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWER
LEVELS. BACKED OFF ON POPS A LITTLE BIT...BUT LEFT THE CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME FRAME EVEN AT TWO DAYS OUT. WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANYTHING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

[WeatherRocker]

Bah humbug.  

[BaxterWX]

My cofidence is very low - of any chance for snow - anytime!

[jmundie]

Is anyone awake?

I'm looking at virga and hoping and praying that it starts reaching the ground.We're gonna have snow echos all over theplace on the radar today and nothing's gonna happen, and I"m gonna cry. I know it.

NAM this morning starting to pick up on the precip... by tomorrow morning. Surely all this will have moved out by then, and we'll have nothing to show for this series of cold snaps.

[lyngo]

Prepare for Virga Storm 2008 now!   

[Thundersnow]

The 12Z NAM is a little wetter than previous runs... still meager for us though.  Some icing may be a concern for parts of the Gulf Coast states.  Parts of Mississippi are already experiencing problems this morning with slick roads.

Nashville AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
400 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...COLD SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED ALONG OHIO RIVER.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM WEST HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE CHILL. READINGS WERE IN THE 9 TO 13 RANGE AS OF 09Z. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. WE WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY
REPLACED BY GRADUALLY THICKENING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 30S.

TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS TONIGHT. MODELS ALL SHOW SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STREAMING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WEAK LIFT.
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 700-850 MB
LAYER EARLY...LOWERING INTO THE 800-900 MB LAYER BY 12Z. THIS
MOISTURE PROFILE DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH PRECIPITATION...BUT THIS
PROFILE ALONG WITH SLIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT OFTEN BRINGS AT LEAST
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP APPEAR TO BE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO WE WILL GO 30
POPS THERE...AND 20 POPS NORTH. TYPE LOOKS LIKE MAINLY S- EXCEPT
SOME IP- SOUTH. A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT...BUT WITH LOW POPS SEE NO REASON TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
FURTHER. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
AT MOST...SO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OTHER THAN MAYBE A LITTLE
DUSTING PLATEAU. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS MAY EVAPORATE MOST OF WHAT
PERCIP DOES GENERATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. STILL...WITH
COLD GROUND A FEW SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU COUNTIES WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED WITH READING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RISING
HEIGHTS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...INTO THE 50S FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING FAIR AND NEAR NORMAL WEATHER WEDNESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM SHOWN TO
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL HOLD FORECAST
TO CHANCE AT THIS TIME SINCE THAT IS A WEEK AWAY.

[Coach B]

Sounds like both HUN and BMX are considering WW Advisories for tonight.  I wonder if OHX will bump up pops for its southern counties?  It'll probably happen tonight, given that its the weekend. 

[Coach B]

MEG now onboard:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1048 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2008

...WINTER WEATHER TO AFFECT THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL
PRODUCE WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ARZ035-036-048-049-058-MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ088>092-260000-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0002.080125T1648Z-080126T1200Z/
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-TATE-PRENTISS-COAHOMA-
QUITMAN-PANOLA-LAFAYETTE-UNION-PONTOTOC-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA-
TALLAHATCHIE-YALOBUSHA-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-MONROE-SHELBY-FAYETTE-
HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
HELENA...SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...CORINTH...IUKA...TUNICA...
BOONEVILLE...CLARKSDALE...BATESVILLE...OXFORD...NEW ALBANY...
TUPELO...AMORY...ABERDEEN...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...
COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...
SAVANNAH
1048 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY.

LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET WITH LESS THAN ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAVANNAH TO MEMPHIS AND FORREST CITY
ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TUPELO MISSISSIPPI TO MARVELL ARKANSAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY IN
THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

[tornadofreek1]

Ice Storm Warnings also to the south..

[dave]

I can't believe this forum is so quiet... we have frozen precip out to the west with cold temps... is it possible that our snow chance may be bumped up this afternoon??

[Nashville_wx]

Not at the moment dave. Later tonight we could see a thin band of snow come through leaving a dusting but nothing more. Air looks too dry to support any moderate precip. Come 6pm or so we can look at the Wv and IR images and see how our location is.

[Coach B]

I can't believe this forum is so quiet... we have frozen precip out to the west with cold temps...

I think our ongoing snowdrought has allowed us to become quite cynical and negative in regards to winter weather here.  However, it does look like this system is overperforming, but it also sure looks like most of it will slide to our south.  

[Thundersnow]

The states to our south seem to be getting the winter weather this season.  Alabama and Mississippi have already seen more snow than here in TN (it seems like).  Now... the ice.  But, I don't miss the ice.

A flurry dusting tonight would be nice.